The Failure Garden

AI transformation red-team simulator · Northstar Mutual (fictional) · a structured thought experiment, not a forecast

Self-check running…
1

The failure thesis

2

Compose the scenario

Stress the plan with combinations, not single events. Stressors share the same pools — control-function attention, change capacity, executive patience — so a pair is not the sum of its parts.

3

Simulate

4

Failure-path replay & causal map

One representative failure path, stepped month by month. The graph below updates with each step: red = a mechanism has fired, teal ring = someone noticed.

Run a simulation to start the replay.
5

Mitigation portfolio

6

Adversary lenses

Six readers with different incentives, each reading the same simulated state for what hurts them or what they could exploit.

7

Metric corruption lab

Whatever you choose to optimize becomes a behavior. Switch the primary success metric and watch gaming pressure, hidden harm, and the blind spots change the whole simulation.

8

Pre-mortem & dissent

9

Decision package

Exports scenario, assumptions, chosen mitigations, budget and capacity use, outcome ranges, the representative path, dissent, metric choice, and what remains unknown — as local JSON. Nothing leaves this page.