The failure thesis
Compose the scenario
Stress the plan with combinations, not single events. Stressors share the same pools — control-function attention, change capacity, executive patience — so a pair is not the sum of its parts.
Simulate
Failure-path replay & causal map
One representative failure path, stepped month by month. The graph below updates with each step: red = a mechanism has fired, teal ring = someone noticed.
Mitigation portfolio
Adversary lenses
Six readers with different incentives, each reading the same simulated state for what hurts them or what they could exploit.
Metric corruption lab
Whatever you choose to optimize becomes a behavior. Switch the primary success metric and watch gaming pressure, hidden harm, and the blind spots change the whole simulation.
Pre-mortem & dissent
Decision package
Exports scenario, assumptions, chosen mitigations, budget and capacity use, outcome ranges, the representative path, dissent, metric choice, and what remains unknown — as local JSON. Nothing leaves this page.